It’s Week 4 of the NFL season, which kicks off on Thursday with the Philadelphia Eagles facing the Green Bay Packers, so it’s time for our weekly look at the point spreads in order to help you win some money.
Last week, our Charles Curtis went 10-5 in Week 3 picks (27-20 overall) and Steven Ruiz went 7-8 (27-20 overall). We now go to each of them for comments before their picks.
Charles: ALL TIED UP! There’s still a long way to go here, but this seems promising.
Steven: First losing week of the season has left me tied with Charles. Completely unacceptable. I tried to get too cute last weak and bet on three terrible teams in the Raiders, Redskins and Dolphins.
(All odds courtesy of BetMGM)
Eagles at Packers (-4.5)
The Packers defense is legit, their running game is legit … but the Eagles are still balanced enough to keep this game close (they’ve lost their last two by four and three points respectively). I take the points in a short week.
The Eagles are better than their record implies and that will start to show … after this week. This is a tough Green Bay defense to prepare for on a short week, and I could see Philly’s banged up offense struggle on the road.
Panthers at Texans (-4.5)
KYLE ALLEN!!! I love what I saw last week and he and Christian McCaffrey will be good enough to at least cover against a suspect Texans defense that just allowed Keenan Allen to go off for 183 yards.
Kyle Allen was legitimately good last week and the Panthers pass defense has been legitimately good all season. I still don’t know what to make of this Texans team, so I’ll lay the points.
Browns at Ravens (-6.5)
Baltimore’s defense will doom Baker Mayfield and the terrible offensive line in Cleveland, and Lamar Jackson will take care of the rest.
This is a bad matchup for a struggling Browns offense but that line is awfully high. Lamar Jackson is coming off a bad week and I need to see him bounce back before I trust him enough to cover 6.5 points against a talented team.
Redskins at Giants (-2.5)
Yeah, yeah, Case Keenum is probably going to throw for 400 yards. But it’s Daniel Jones who will have the last laugh at home with another stellar day against the team that just allowed Mitchell Trubisky to break out of his funk.
I mean, you watched the Monday night game against the Bears, right? This defense is bad, the offense isn’t much better and I could see Daniel Jones having another good game.
Chargers at Dolphins (+16.5)
The Dolphins are getting three points for being the home team, so it’s a palatable spread that isn’t above 20 points. So of course I have to take Los Angeles.
Learned my lesson last week. Don’t ever bet on a tanking team.
Raiders at Colts (-6.5)
Indy is among the NFL teams with solid rosters on both sides of the ball. Marlon Mack will run all day and Derek Carr will be kept in check.
I learned my lesson last week (x2). Don’t ever bet on a Gruden coaching against a playoff-caliber teams.
Chiefs at Lions (+6.5)
A spread where you have to take the favorite because even if the Lions put up, say, 23 points, Patrick Mahomes will get the Chiefs to … 40?
After talking up the Lions in my power rankings this week, I really want to pick Detroit here, but Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense is on another level. I am interested to see what Matt Patricia has cooked up for Kansas City.
Patriots at Bills (+7.5)
The Bills defense is good enough to juuuust keep this with in a touchdown. As for Josh Allen and the offense? Different story. But Buffalo covers.
Vegas knows what it’s doing with this line. It’s just big enough to get some people to bite on a 3-0 Bills team. But we saw this movie last year when the 3-0 Dolphins took on the Patriots in Week 4 and got trounced. Think we see something similar here.
Titans at Falcons (-4.5)
I didn’t like what I saw with the Titans against Jacksonville, and playing on the road won’t help either.
The Titans defense was a mess last Thursday night and now they have to go to Atlanta and deal with Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley? This could get ugly.
Buccaneers at Rams (-10.5)
The Bucs’ defense is the big surprise of 2019 — it’s not elite, but it’s much improved. Couple that with still worrying about Jared Goff and I’m backing the underdogs.
Whoa! That line is waaaaaaay too big. The Rams offense is struggling. The Bucs defense was playing well before the second half of last week’s game. I’ll take the points.
Seahawks at Cardinals (+4.5)
I have no idea. I really don’t. I think Kyler Murray gets a backdoor cover at home, at worst. So I’ll take the points.
I don’t trust Brian Schottenheimer at all, but the talent gap between these teams is just too big for me to entertain Arizona covering.
Vikings at Bears (-2.5)
So. Much. Defense. I think it’s a two-point win either way in a low-scoring affair, so I’ll take the points.
Minnesota is winning this one straight up. I’m taking the better QB and that’s Kirk Cousins. Both of the defenses will ball though.
Jaguars at Broncos (-3)
I have to ride the Gardner Minshew magic even though as I type this, I know I’m wrong.
I get the Gardner Minshew hype, but the Broncos rarely lose at home in September. I’m predicting a breakout game for the Broncos defense which doesn’t have a sack or turnover forced.
Cowboys at Saints (+3)
Teddy Bridgewater looked pretty good last week, but I think you have to back a stronger Cowboys team.
I trust Sean Payton enough to keep his team close enough to cover at home. Teddy Bridgewater will be efficient and the defense will give the Cowboys offense some problems in its first game against a decent team.
Bengals at Steelers (-4.5)
I’m actually going to quote Steven here with this tweet:
The future of the Steelers pic.twitter.com/LTamAGMiL9
— Steven Ruiz (@theStevenRuiz) September 24, 2019
I did say that Mason Rudolph would be good enough to cover last week, and he did. But getting 4.5 points at home to a Bengals team that can keep up offensively? Please.
Disagree with Charles on one thing: Mason Rudolph was not good enough to cover last week. The turnover-happy 49ers offense was just bad enough to allow him to cover. That won’t happen again this week.